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Well that helps me understand why so many libertarians feel this way about this issue. If you don't think much of the government you are not going to like currency whose only value derives from government promises or declaration.
Zimbabwe Weimar Germany on a lesser level Italy Brazil Argentina on an even lesser level Switerland between and today. The fact the dollar has historically outperformed doesnt give me any trust for it to continue to do so in the future.
If all government currencies suck simultaneously, the world will flock to US dollars. They're backed by a shocking superiority of military power for the foreseeable future.
The way Jim Grant puts it is, "human beings are not competent to administer a system of fiat currencies backed by nothing.
Basically, without any natural brake on the creation of money, the temptation for governments and in some cases the financial companies that own them to inflate the money supply is too great.
I'm no gold bug but I have tremendous respect for its ability to preserve wealth no matter the political or historical turmoil one finds oneself in.
Surely there is some lesson to be gleaned from the fact that gold has always held value, while every fiat currency system in history has come to grief.
The difference is that it's a lot easier to rob you by printing more of the paper than it is to suddenly mine a lot more gold.
Because it's hard for people to play games with the value of gold, MNG. It's much easier to play with the value of paper.
Come on, you know this. You know I like to point out all the things I do know, but in all seriousness I don't know shit about this subject.
I have no idea what is supposed to be so good about the gold standard. I assume there is nothing intrinsically valuable about metal and paper, social agreement makes them valuable.
I imagine proponents of gold mean that historically and comparitively more people value gold hence it is a safer bet? It was a joke, but it does have a serious point.
People value gold for aesthetic reasons. That gives it a "value" that paper doesnt have. But I can't help but think that a lot of the value of gold in people's minds is simply inherited from centuries of governments using it as their currency, hence it has the same authority as paper money, just a longer pedigree No, I think the value comes from people liking it as jewelry, nothing to do with historical use as money.
As I said way up there, it can get you laid. Turn it into gold first, and the target range is wider. It has aesthetic uses, it also has industrial uses.
The point is that gold is a relatively stable store of value. Most of us here expect the dollar to be increasingly debased as the government's debt mounts in the coming years.
Golds greatest value is that it is intrinsically finite, there's only so much on this rock and you have a pretty good chance of estimating future increases.
Which means the currency pegged to gold is finite. If the currency is finite it will not inflate or deflate in an absolute sense, it can do both relative to other thing in value.
So think about that. The money supply is relatively fixed. So growth will require the monetary velocity to increase, or the static nature of the supply will retard growth.
Are you implying that using gold as the de facto currency will make true the idea of a "zero-sum game" economy, for the reasons you put forth?
It's hard for people to corner gold. Governments cornering and manipulating price is another thing. As rap music becomes more and more popular the demand for gold will increase thereby increasing its worth.
So I guess you might have something Maybe you should try a stepwise regression this time, MNG. Your R Squared will undoubtedly improve Also, for the seriously hardcore, there are catalytic converters in junked cars.
Of course, the junkers are usually aware of this. So are the catalytic converter thieves. Some of the large cities have been plagued with them in recent years.
And what happens when velocity picks up? Oh, right, we can trust Bernanke to be right on top of that. When you have an emergency, you need to concentrate on stabilizing the economy by preventing a massive crisis from turning into the next Great Depression, because it was pretty obvious what would have happened.
So, while the Fed made some mistakes, let's be pretty honest here. Had they done what the Fed did in the 's, we would have gotten the same result.
This time around, they got a lot more things right. The real money supply was more or less unchanged because, as I said above, the Fed didn't increase M enough in the face of a massive decline in V.
Even if you're right, Pingry, the idea that they will contain the coming inflation is doubtful. Consider the purposes inflation will serve -. A lot of people still don't get how inflation works, and won't blame the government 2 As a method to make housing prices rise.
While this will only be a nominal rise, it will give some people the illusion that their properties are regaining the value they once had.
I should probably point out that, in theory, I agree with the monetarists more than the gold standard people. The problem is that it is incredibly hard to match GDP growth and monetary growth.
And the current process is hopelessly politicized. However, moving back to a gold standard would have problems of its own.
A multi-metallic standard that allowed banks to back their dollars with the metal or other item of their choice might alleviate this somewhat.
No, the problem is that if you let the motherfuckers inflate the money, even if they do it exactly as Friedman wanted, they're cheating us all of the lower prices we should be getting due to improvements in production efficiency.
Even with the relatively small inflation we had from , computers, TVs, and DVD players all went down in price - in both real and nominal terms.
BP, I don't know shit about money. What about just repealing the legal tender law? Not that it'll ever happen, but what would be likely to occur if it did?
If that happened, the dollar would collapse, and we'd be trading in any number of other currencies, until a few emerged that were widely trusted. Gold would probably be the most popular, but I'd also be willing to accept banknotes backed by gold, as long as they were issued by a bank I could trust.
Credit Suisse, for example. These people have no idea how to live without money. They're what's called new poor. Well, I can put the trash into a landfill where it's gonna stay for millions of years, or I can burn it up and get a nice smoky smell in here and let that smoke go up to the sky where it turns into stars.
Warty, I suspect banks would have to find something to back their money with, and they would choose metals. They wouldn't all go with gold, though, because there would be a run-up in price to make the recent one look like nothing.
People are accustomed to fiat money, and they might be willing to accept this, especially if the FDIC was not eliminated with the legal tender law.
Seriously this is such a stupid statement. If money is so worthless then why can you buy gold with it? And secondly what intrinsic value does gold have?
I guess you can put some of it in circuit boards Using the arguments that cash has no value generally just exposed how worthless, in a utility sense, gold is.
If you got gold, you'll need to defend it Jim Grant is the best financial writer out there today, hands down. I wish his newsletter wasn't so damned expensive.
I'm a deflationist so it's too bad most of his advice lately is of the one-note "sell dollars and buy stuff" variety, but I'm always delighted when I see one of his columns being widely circulated.
So let's say that the currency was backed by some commodity, the entire world's supply of which was used for that purpose.
So the amount of money in the country was fixed. As GDP grew, then, there would be deflation. I'm told that this would be bad, but I don't understand why.
Why would gradual deflation be worse than gradual inflation, or not-so gradual inflation? It seems to me that with modern instruments and electronic banking etc, dealing with ever-smaller amounts of specie shouldn't be any real impediment to commerce.
Deflation is very bad - for those people who never have to worry about making a living or keeping a roof over their heads.
Inflation and deflation are the monetary system warping the underlying economy due to too much or too little money in circulation.
Ideally, the money supply shouldn't be messing with price levels; if that is a problem with fiat money when not well managed , it is no less one with a commodity money since it's chief merit is that it is pretty much static.
A lot of people still don't get how inflation works, and won't blame the government. Aside from one post, no. A private currency is just a private FIAT currency.
It is all a matter of trust that the supplier of the currency isn't cheating you. Most who think being a "gold bug" is irrational and at the same time think they are better armed are truley the irrational ones.
Gold bugs in my circle of friends make the US Marie Corps look like a girl scout party. You bring you wall stree suit down here to the mountains and just try to take someone's gold.
The most difficult decision for those who have it is which series of weapons to kill you with. Keeping hard assets at home that is requires a certain level of protection In the end it really doesnt matter.
If the shit hits the fan that bad then, for a time, gold will be worth less than survialist type preparations. But that wont last forever AND I don't think it will get that bad.
The main problem with any metal standard is the central bank setting gold's value and not letting it float.
Some of the things he thinks we ought not forget, as he offers some sympathy for the devil paper dollar: But we ought not let the thrall in which it has held the world in most of our adult lives blind us: What is more likely to keep its value?
That colden, golden metal: But he's careful not to place too much credence in the magic of gold qua gold's value these days--its dizzy price capering could just be the Fed's latest interest-rate engineered bubble expanding: If you like to investigate this issue further, Hayek is a good start.
And everyone knows a million fiat US dollars is worth a lot, too. Doubtless these are the properties that contributed to the historical value.
Oh wait, something's wrong here Welcome to the wonderful world of subjective valuation. You just gotta find the right woman.
They might just nail your ass to a cross, too. Talk about conspiracy theories! I believe subzero has it nailed when he writes: This guy doesn't understand the difference between money supply and GDP.
It is so sad how public schools have failed our children. Failure of conceptual imagination? Besides those qualities, it's useful for many ornamental and industrial purposes.
BOB, Attachment to gold is fundamentally cryptoreligious. I think you have to be born before to have any gold in your teeth And attachment to paper money isn't?
Of course, for a fee, you might persuade us to spare you a little longer. Barbarians don't have to be able to spell. I wouldn't be clinging to gold.
The first guy that comes with a gun and your gold won't buy you much. You omit the more likely situation of someone with gold having a gun in his other hand.
The value of gold doesn't go. Which will make it so very easy to recruit my horde, when the time comes.
Pretty sure both are equally rational. If the government goes, usually everything else does, too. The rationality depends on your time and place.
One thing i have never understood. Why is inflation anti-liberty? Which begs the second question You do think that taxes limit liberty, right?
Cause hangins too good fer em. Tell it to Wiemar Germany. This is also a good reason to buy American dollars. JI, you seem to embrace the mistaken belief that "gold-bugs" can't shoot as well as you.
Man, that roundtable with Friedman and Paul was incredible. I have to wonder if it's really worth it. Seems pretty reaosnable to me dude, I like it.
So you guys are bitching about dropping the gold standard? The next thing you know you'll be denying something like man caused global warming.
So how much of the warming is 'man caused' and how much is 'woman caused'? You have 0 answers to any of those questions.
And the gold fetishists strike again! Alright, so I am ambivalent about the things Mr. Grant has written and said over the years.
And when it comes to monetary theory, it's not an issue of whether gold or pick your favorite metallic standard has a higher subjective value than "paper with ink on it" What matters, of course, in the longrun is the purchasing power of the medium of exchange.
A great deal of concern is often expressed about what "backs" Federal Reserve Notes. Technically, the notes are collateralized by holdings of securities -- mostly those of the United States government.
Many people, however, feel that this begs the question. What then "backs" the securities that back the Notes? The short answer is nothing.
There are no real assets, public or private, that are specifically pledged to collateralize the debt of the government.
The government borrows on its "full faith and credit," which is to say that it borrows as long as everyone thinks it is able to service the debt.
This means that ultimately nothing backs the money except the full faith and credit of the government. Congressional Research Service Library of Congress.
So why do you think think the Fed massively increased the monetary base my friend? Perhaps it has something to do with a massive decline in the velocity of money You do understand the quantity theory of money, no?
This is pretty straightforward stuff. So, let me inform everyone of something: Ive yet to be convinced that depressions are bad things in the long run.
More importantly, I know it's a poor model. The demand side of the money supply is the demand to hold cash balances.
Yeah, go Big Silver! Vote Bryan in ! Why because in the book they were silver slippers rather than ruby? That does not make it an intrinsically better money.
Gold has value without government support. Government support historically is short lived. Again I'm not being snarky, it just makes sociological sense to me.
The supply of one is bounded by market forces, the other is not. Does it really matter? Discover the Philosopher's Stone.
How about a history lesson? Oh god that's 2 tinfoil hat posts in as many hours. I'd like to invest in Flavor Flav's grill alone And we can only wait to see what happens next in terms of monetary policy.
Consider the purposes inflation will serve - 1 As a "stealth" tax. The words "Spandau Ballet" do not appear in the post or any of these comments.
Wait is he talking about gold? Because governments force people to accept it in payment of debts.
Guns never go to a zero price point, either. So long as they're working. Competing currencies impose significant transaction costs. A good glass in the Bishop's hostel.
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